Despite a recent decline in global cocoa prices due to improved weather forecasts in producing countries and weaker worldwide demand, chocolate prices in the Czech Republic are unlikely to decrease anytime soon. Cocoa prices have fallen by nearly 15 percent in the past month to approximately $8,200 (172,000 CZK) per ton, yet they remain well above historical averages.
According to Food Chamber spokesman Marek Zemánek, favorable weather and rainfall in key West African growing regions have helped ease earlier shortage concerns. Nevertheless, consumers are still feeling the pinch at checkout counters. Data analyst Monika Kopčilová reports that a 100-gram Milka chocolate bar now costs an average of 65 crowns in July, a 20-crown increase compared to last year. To make matters worse, manufacturer Mondelēz has reduced the size of some Milka products by 10 percent over the past year.
Nestlé spokesperson Tereza Procházková explained that recommended retail prices have covered less than half of the cocoa price increases faced by manufacturers since late 2023. Even with recent market relief, cocoa prices remain more than triple their long-term average. Analysts warn that consumers shouldn’t expect price reductions soon, as retail chocolate prices continue to climb based on record increases in recent years.
XTB chief analyst Jiří Tyleček notes that many companies purchased cocoa at peak prices during record surges and must now sell these expensive inventories. However, sustained lower cocoa prices could eventually halt further increases. Nearly three-quarters of global cocoa production comes from Ghana and Ivory Coast, with the market facing deficits for four consecutive years. Even with favorable autumn harvests, depleted reserves at historic lows cannot be quickly replenished.
The concentration of production in just a few countries negatively impacts prices, as does the political situation. Farmers in Ivory Coast have struggled to earn a living in recent months, confronting smugglers who illegally transport cocoa beans to neighboring countries where they can fetch up to triple the domestic price. Additionally, an upcoming European Union deforestation regulation taking effect later this year could further pressure prices by requiring companies to prove their cocoa doesn’t come from recently deforested areas.