Coffee prices have skyrocketed in recent months, with American consumers feeling the burn of a 21% year-over-year price increase in August—the largest jump since October 1997. Much of the blame falls on former President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, which have significantly impacted the global coffee supply chain.
The United States, as the world’s largest coffee importer, depends almost entirely on foreign markets for its beans. Brazil, America’s primary coffee supplier, now faces punishing 50% tariffs—among the highest the U.S. currently imposes on any imported goods. CNN attributes this harsh economic stance to “Trump’s anger over the process and recent conviction of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, Trump’s ally”.
The impact extends beyond Brazil. Colombia, the world’s second-largest coffee exporter by net weight, faces 10% tariffs, while Vietnam, the third-largest producer, contends with 20% duties. These combined pressures have caused commodity coffee prices to surge by more than a third in August alone, with Arabica coffee seeing a 25% price increase since January.
Industry response has been varied. Major brands like Folgers owner J.M. Smucker’s has already raised prices twice since May and warns of a third increase this winter. Meanwhile, local chains like New Orleans’ “French Truck Coffee” have implemented a 4% tariff surcharge on orders to offset rising costs. Starbucks, however, remains cautious, suggesting that due to its purchasing policies, the full impact of coffee tariffs won’t peak until 2026.
KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonková predicts coffee prices will “easily exceed record levels as the full effects of the 50% tariffs imposed on Brazil last month manifest on store shelves”. With current prices hovering around $410 per pound (approximately 8,500 Czech crowns), coffee lovers worldwide should brace for continued price increases in the coming months.