In a pivotal decision at its final monetary meeting of the year, the Czech National Bank (CNB) has pressed pause on its year-long streak of interest rate cuts, maintaining the base rate at 4%. This marks the first time since December last year that the bank’s board has opted not to reduce rates, which had been steadily declining from a peak of 7%.
The decision comes as no surprise to market analysts, who had anticipated this cautionary stance. CNB board member Karina Kubelková recently highlighted ongoing concerns about rapid price increases in the service sector, high public spending, wage pressure, and uncertain geopolitical conditions as key factors prompting a more prudent approach to future rate adjustments.
Despite inflation currently hovering below 3%, recent data has raised eyebrows among central bankers. Notably, third-quarter wage growth exceeded expectations, reaching 7% year-on-year, significantly above the central bank’s projected 6.1%. While the year-on-year inflation rate has stabilized at 2.8% in recent months, experts warn of potential volatility ahead, particularly in food prices and service sector dynamics.
Looking forward to 2024, economists anticipate continued pressure for further rate cuts, driven by persistent economic weakness. While higher interest rates have meant better returns on savings accounts, they’ve also resulted in costlier business loans and mortgages. The central bank’s strategy of maintaining current rates gives it time to evaluate previous monetary policy adjustments while supporting the Czech crown’s stronger position.