The Czech Republic, once a powerhouse in European electricity exports, may soon find itself in an unexpected position – as an electricity importer. This dramatic shift could occur as early as 2026, according to a study by the “Facts on Climate” project.
The catalyst for this change? The rising cost of emission allowances. If these prices reach €100 (2500 CZK) per ton of CO2, it could render two-thirds of the country’s coal-fired power plants economically unviable. Coal currently accounts for about 40% of the Czech Republic’s electricity production.
This potential transition is particularly striking given the country’s recent history. Just last year, the Czech Republic exported 9 terawatt-hours of electricity, ranking fourth in Europe for electricity exports. However, by 2026, it might need to import about 2.5 terawatt-hours, roughly 4% of its consumption.
The shift would have far-reaching implications. While it could accelerate the development of new energy sources, including gas and pumped-storage power plants, and potentially boost the case for new nuclear facilities, it also poses risks. Analysts warn about the dangers of over-reliance on imports, particularly in extreme situations where foreign producers might prioritize domestic markets.
As the Czech Republic navigates this potential energy transition, balancing economic, environmental, and security concerns will be crucial. The coming years will reveal whether this Central European nation can maintain its energy independence or if it will join the ranks of electricity importers.