After two years of record-breaking prices on commodity markets, orange juice is finally seeing a dramatic turnaround. The price has dropped by half from its September peak, driven by improved harvest forecasts and decreasing demand.
The market hit unprecedented levels in September last year, reaching $5.80 per pound (roughly $138), representing a five-fold increase from early 2021. This surge was primarily due to adverse weather conditions and bacterial diseases affecting citrus crops in key growing regions. Brazil, the world’s largest orange producer, suffered from prolonged droughts, while Florida battled both heat waves and hurricanes.
The tide is now turning, with Brazil’s Fundecitrus association raising its orange production forecast for the 2024/2025 season to 223.14 million boxes, a 3.4% increase from previous estimates. Though this still represents a 27.4% decline from the previous season, it signals improving production conditions.
Major producers are already planning to adjust their pricing strategies. Hello juice manufacturer in the Czech Republic has announced immediate plans to reflect these lower costs in their retail prices, though the full impact may be tempered by recent tax increases.
However, analysts caution that while prices should drop significantly this year, they won’t return to the low levels seen in 2020, as market prices remain more than triple those historical figures.