Black scenario: the Czech Republic will depend on electricity imports. It will become more expensive, and shortages are imminent

From 2030 on, if the Czech Republic stops producing coal energy, it will depend on expensive and risky electricity imports from abroad. In some cases, the country may even face electricity shortages. This is according to an analysis by the power transmission system operator, CEPS.

According to the report, the state will, therefore, not be able to do without constructing additional nuclear power plants in the future, as well as a mechanism to support flexible energy sources. The state should also maintain a certain level of self-sufficiency to cover national electricity consumption.

On Wednesday, CEPS presented an analysis of several possible scenarios for the future development of the energy mix in the Czech Republic. Unlike in the past, the study included the so-called “decarbonization scenario,” which assumes the Czech economy will meet its carbon neutrality commitment in 2050.

CEPS based its energy portfolio on the assumption of the end of coal combustion for electricity generation by 2030 and a significant increase in the installed capacity of renewable energy sources. According to CEPS, the two scenarios show that the Czech Republic will depend on electricity imports from abroad, for example, from Germany or France, from 2030 onwards in the event of a rapid end to coal combustion. Moreover, importing electricity could be very expensive and possibly even risky.

“Given the uncertainties in the development and implementation of future technologies and the maintenance of today’s surplus electricity production in individual countries, there is a risk that electricity imports will exceed 10 percent of the Czech Republic’s electricity consumption,” CEPS said the report.

Moreover, the CEPS analysis predicts a further deterioration of the situation after 2030, which could lead to severe problems with the adequacy of the grid. In the case of the decarbonization scenario, which foresees a significant increase in electricity consumption in transport or industry, the country could face electricity shortages.

It won’t work without nuclear

.According to the CEPS analysis, the Czech Republic cannot do without constructing additional nuclear power plants in the long term to maintain the security and reliability of the electricity supply. It will also be necessary to introduce a capacity mechanism to support flexible sources, where operators receive payments from the state for availability or even for power provided to ensure the stability of the electricity system. The analysis also stresses that the state should maintain a degree of self-sufficiency in meeting national electricity consumption.

Under current plans, the government plans to move away from coal by 2033. However, some government members have previously spoken of efforts to accelerate these steps toward 2030. This is the date set by companies such as ČEZ for reducing coal-fired generation.

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