Czech Elections Update: ANO Leads the Way

According to a recent poll by Median agency, the ANO movement would win parliamentary elections in July with 33% of the vote, a drop of 2.5 percentage points from June. ODS would come second with 15%, and the Piráti third with 12%. The Social Democrats (SOCDEM) would return to the lower house of parliament with 5% of the vote.

If parliamentary elections were held in July, seven parties and movements would enter the Chamber of Deputies. Along with ANO, followed by ODS and Piráti, SPD would also be represented, with 8% of the vote, as would STAN (6.5%) and TOP 09 (5.5%).

The Social Democrats would be on the 5% threshold required to enter the Chamber of Deputies, failing to do so in the last parliamentary elections after decades in parliament. Conversely, KDU-ČSL, which received 4% of the vote, would be out of the chamber.

However, “overcoming the 5% threshold is uncertain for parties that move around it (STAN, TOP 09, SOCDEM, KDU-ČSL),” according to the poll’s authors.

Regarding mandates, ANO would gain 77 seats, ODS 35, Piráti 29, SPD 19, STAN 15, TOP 09 and SOCDEM would all have 14. The current government coalition would have 92 mandates, even without the Christian Democrats.

The poll was conducted from July 1 to 8 on 1019 respondents aged 18 and over. The statistical deviation is half a percentage point for small parties and up to 3.5 percentage points for the largest parties.