According to Median’s November election model, economist Danuše Nerudová would come in first in the presidential race with 28 % of the vote. ANO chair Andrej Babiš would receive 26.5 % and retired general Petr Pavel 23.5 %.
Senator Pavel Fischer would get 5.5 percent, another senator, Marek Hilšer, 3.5 percent, and trade union leader Josef Středula.
SPD candidate Jaroslav Bašta would receive 2.5 percent of the vote. Businessman Karel Janeček, eliminated by the ministry, would get two percent and Denisa Rohanová 0.5 percent. Tomáš Zima does not appear in the poll because of his low preferences.
Nerudová is preferred mainly by younger voters between 25 and 34 years old, Babiš by seniors over 65, and Pavel more often by older people. However, the agency says his support is more evenly distributed among all age categories.
All three leading candidates have strengthened compared to the previous survey, with Neruda the most significant. “Thus, there is a noticeable shift in support from the other candidates to these three, which is also partly due to the closing of candidate registration for the presidential election,” the agency said.
The decision to go to the polls was made by 62 percent of respondents. Participation was ruled out by 12.5 percent.
Babiš would be beaten in the second round by Hilšer
Nerudová’s potential is 41.5 percent, Pavel’s 39 percent, and Babiš’s 35.5 percent. Babiš has the strongest electoral core (19 percent) while at 15 percent for Nerudová and 11 percent for Pavel.
In a direct contest in the second round, Nerudová would beat Babiš 60:40 percent, Pavel at 59:41 percent, and Hilšer and Fischer identically at 52:48 percent. In a hypothetical duel with Středula, Babiš would win 55:45 percent.
The survey was conducted from November 9 to December 7, involving 1,010 respondents.