What kind of coronavirus situation will be in autumn?

According to Ladislav Dušek, head of the Institute of Health Information and Statistics (IHIS), they have prepared three scenarios for developing the coronavirus epidemic in autumn. The riskiest one is that up to 500 people could be infected in a hospital on a single day, Dušek outlined to MPs at a meeting of the parliamentary health committee on Wednesday.

“If it started to spread in the at-risk population, the risk scenario could see up to 500 hospital admissions on any given day in the second half of September,” Dusek told MPs.

According to Health Minister Adam Vojtěch, a risk scenario would occur if 50 people a day were entering hospitals with covid. This scenario assumes that those vaccinated first could run out of protection after vaccination, and the disease would spread among risk groups and the elderly.

According to Dušek, the trend has been encouraging thus far, despite new intakes being more than 90% unvaccinated in the long run. As of Wednesday, 89 people are hospitalized, 26 of them in the ICU. He says caution is needed when the daily intake rises to 50.

All models work with the vaccination rate of the population and the fact that the vaccinated are less likely to have a serious illness.

One scenario assumes that the adult population fails to be vaccinated at 75 percent. Currently, more than 66 percent of those over the age of 18 have received at least the first dose of the vaccine.